The growth in Africa shows the country becoming a leading investment target for telecommunication, according to a study sponsored by Russian telecoms investor Altimo. The Altimo Index, basis on mobile industry data for the first nine months of the year, is produced jointly by professors from Cambridge University, London Business School and New Economic School in Moscow.
The investment analysis looks at average mobile spending per capita, earnings, growth in penetration rate and capital expenditure relative to revenue and population. The study predicts that overall Africa mobile penetration rate will exceed 50 percent by 2012. The markets in South East Asia and South Asia show signs of saturation, with countries such as Indonesia, China, Vietnam becoming close to their investment-attractiveness peak.
The study expects investors' interest in most of these markets to begin to decline in 2011. The CIS markets are demonstrating fast recovery from the economic crisis with increasing profit margins compared to 2008. Operators have improved the quality of subscriber bases, which has resulted in steady growth in minutes of use and ARPU. The CIS region remains an attractive target for mobile investments in the medium term.
The MoU figure this year will be higher than the 2008 level in the majority of markets, especially in Africa, Middle East, and Latin America, which could result in renewed ARPU growth, provided that these economies emerge from recession soon.
The financial crisis precipitated a wave of consolidation in the international telecommunications markets, producing strong global players with the ability to upgrade their networks swiftly to 4G. The consolidation will give additional impetus to the fast increase in mobile telecommunication penetration levels worldwide, leaving the traditional fixed-line industry heading for oblivion at a faster rate than predicted.
